My take on the Raiders' future

The Oakland Raiders are hurting. They are desperate for a tough, offensive-minded coach who can sweet talk owner Al Davis into letting him run the team. The Raiders were a sorry four and thirteen this last season and that's pretty much been the standard since they last went to the Superbowl four years ago.

I believe that the biggest thing holding the Raiders back from being a competitive team is it's owner. Al Davis is an extremely hands-on owner, the worst in the NFL. He has complete control over personel, something that would destroy the effectiveness of a coach like Mike Shanahan of the Denver Broncos. Most of Shanahan's brilliance is finding the diamonds in the rough and making stars out of them.

Davis is also hands on with the Raiders defense. So much so that Patriots coach Bill Belichick refers to him as "Coach Davis." Davis is not a big advocate of blitzing, and he favors man-to-man coverage and pressure from a four-man front. He uses his Defensive Coordinator as an assistant, or a punching bag and scapegoat when things go wrong. He needs to lay off the coaches and let them do their jobs. A movie producer doesn't hire a director and then directs the movie. That's the director's job. The producer's job to to make things run smooth for the director.

If Al Davis wants to be the General Manager that's fine, just let the coaches do their jobs. Trust them to know what they are doing. You hired them after all.

Another thing holding Davis from getting decent coaches is the fact that he is notoriously stingy when it comes to paying his coaching staff. The Raiders coaches are among the lowest paid in the NFL. I think it's because Davis fancies himself the Head Coach, and uses others coaches as assistants and because he has to. That's why he hires weak, ineffective coaches. Coaches like Cowler, Belichick, and Shanahan wouldn't put up with him.

Davis has given offensive coaches the latitude to be different. Mike White and Jon Gruden both believed in constant shifting and short passing, although Davis prefers vertical passing off play-action, much like the system taught by Al Saunders.

Offensive and defensive philosophies will be devised in give-and-take session between Al Davis and whatever new coach he manages to get.

Some of Oakland's personnel decisions will be dictated in part by the salary cap as opposed to Davis' will. Oakland renegotiates with players each season to stay under the cap, and in so doing has made it difficult to part with some players -- in particular T Barry Sims and DT Warren Sapp. To cut both men would result in dead money of nearly $12 million against the 2006 cap in pro-rated signing bonus and acceleration.

UNIT-BY-UNIT ANALYSIS

QUARTERBACK: Starter - Kerry Collins. Backups - Marques Tuiasosopo, Andrew Walter.
Collins, due a $2.5 million signing bonus in March and with a 2006 salary-cap figure of nearly $12.9 million, will stay only if he renegotiates his contract. And that assumes he will be asked.

Much will depend on the new coach and who the Raiders may believe is available on the open market. Unless the Raiders can improve their rushing attack dramatically, asking Collins to carry the load is asking for trouble.

Tuiasosopo is in the last year of the contract he signed as a rookie in 2001 and a bargain at $477,000. But he may want out after being given only one game in place of Collins as the starting quarterback. He was benched after two lost fumbles and two interceptions in a loss to the New York Jets. Tuiasosopo remains an unknown commodity.

Walter underwent surgery for a groin injury following the season. He has the size and throwing arm owner Al Davis loves, but there is little to indicate he'd be ready to challenge for a starting role in 2006.

So what the Raiders need here is a good draft pick, which they'll have, to spend on a good Quarterback. Either that or they'll need Shanahan's crystal ball to find a decent free agent. Collins is only decent as a back-up. Tuiasosopo and Walter would both make better starters than Kerry, at least they are relatively fresh and have room to grow in the NFL. Kerry's a washout.

RUNNING BACKS: Starters - RB LaMont Jordan, FB Zack Crockett. Backups - RB Justin Fargas, FB John Paul Foschi, FB Omar Easy.

Jordan rushed for 1,025 yards in 14 games but averaged 3.8 yards per carry. Among his 70 pass receptions were a league-high 12 drops. He needs a legitimate back to spell him, much as he did for Curtis Martin with the New York Jets.

The Raiders need a sprinter, fast from the get-go, who can outrun everyone on the field to back Jordan up. A two headed rushing team, much like the Broncos have, would do wonders for the Raiders rushing offense.

Former coach Norv Turner never did figure out how to best use Crockett, an excellent short-yardage back who remains a valuable player with the right supporting cast and is an excellent locker room influence.

Fargas virtually disappeared onto special teams even as Oakland was looking for another runner. Fargas is an Al Davis favorite who hasn't impressed the coaches.

Foschi, a converted tight end, showed promise as a block-and-catch fullback but was prone to injury.

Easy is strictly a special teams player and is an unrestricted free agent.

I'd get rid of Easy and Fargas. Jordan should back up Crockett. Get someone fast who can split the running back duties with Crockett, someone who can catch as well. That'll amp up the running game something fierce. Of course, a fast back-up would be nice too...

TIGHT END: Starter - Courtney Anderson. Backups - Randal Williams, Zeron Flemister, James Adkisson.

Anderson, a seventh-round find out of San Jose State in the 2004 draft, has showed promise but remains prone to false starts and mistakes on blocking assignments. He finished the season on the bench with a knee injury for the second straight season. At 6-foot-6, 270 pounds with good hands, his skills remain intriguing.

Williams, a former wide receiver, bulked up to 235 pounds to become a tight end. In doing so, he lost none of his effectiveness as a special teams player, which is his true value. He caught a career-high 13 passes but had some key drops. Williams is an unrestricted free agent who is interested in returning.

Flemsiter, another free agent, made no discernable impact as either a receiver or blocker.

Adkisson, a converted wide receiver, was promoted to the 53-man roster from the practice squad in the season finale and was inactive.

Of course I'd get rid of Flemsiter. Adkisson and Williams may be eligable to start, but I'd drop Anderson to a back-up position until he proves that he can stay healthy. The Raiders may wanna look into getting a better tight end, but this isn't where they need the most help.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Starters - WR Randy Moss, FL Jerry Porter. Backups - Doug Gabriel, Alvis Whitted, Ronald Curry, Johnnie Morant, Carlos Francis.

Moss was averaging 24.5 yards per reception until suffering rib, pelvis and groin injuries against San Diego on Oct. 16. He finished with 60 receptions, 1,005 yards (16.8 yards per catch) and eight touchdowns - far below what the Raiders had hoped for. Moss was ignored for long stretches, and his route-running remained suspect, but a new coach will be charged with getting him more involved.

Porter led the Raiders with 76 receptions for 942 yards and had five touchdowns, but his 12.4 yards per reception average was evidence his role had become that of an underneath target. Porter remains an enigma, prone to spectacular catches as well as conspicuous drops. He tends to put together big games in clusters, then disappears.

No. 3 receiver Gabriel quietly became the Raiders' most reliable third-down target, as 31 of his 37 receptions were for first downs. Gabriel, who can make both the routine and spectacular catch, averaged 15.0 yards per catch but was utilized strictly on the outside, while Moss and Porter took turns in the slot.

Whitted remains one of Oakland's fastest receivers at age 31 and a favorite of the owner - the new James Jett. With Achilles' tendon surgeries in each of the last two seasons and a cap value of more than $5 million, Curry either will restructure or be waived. Either way, the career of a promising slot receiver is in limbo because of serious injury.

Morant was a preseason standout who was active only once during the regular season. He has good athleticism and size (6-4, 220) for a possession receiver, but his route-running and savvy are issues.

Francis, a former Texas Tech sprinter, missed all of training camp with a hamstring pull but was kept on the roster simply because of his speed. He will need a strong training camp to make the cut in 2006.

This is the Raiders biggest asset. None of the Wide Receivers are sorry and most simply need better coaching to become truly outstanding.

OFFENSIVE LINE: Starters - LT Barry Sims, LG Langston Walker, C Jake Grove, RG Ron Stone, RT Robert Gallery. Backups - G Brad Badger, C Adam Treu, T Chad Slaughter, G Corey Hulsey, T Brad Lekkerkerker.

The Raiders got a hugely disappointing overall effort from a unit that was supposed to be a strength. Sims has always had trouble when isolated on speed rushers, but his overall performance slipped as well. Yet with acceleration and signing bonus figures totaling nearly $6 million, Sims is unlikely to be cut.

Walker moved from tackle to guard but had his season cut short by an serious abdominal injury that required emergency surgery. Walker is still a work in progress inside.

Grove was shuttled from center to guard because of injuries along the line, and he had knee troubles that ruined his effectiveness in his second year. The club would like to see him settle in at center for a full season.

Stone played all 16 games, but Raiders were vulnerable to heavy pressure over the middle, and the time may have come for a younger, faster player. He's a possible salary-cap casualty with a cap figure of more than $3 million.

Gallery did not step up and have a second year in the manner of highly drafted tackles such as Tony Boselli, Jonathan Ogden or Orlando Pace - names that he was associated with coming out of Iowa. Not a flop, but not a star either. The Raiders expect much, much more in 2006.

Badger had eight starts after Walker went down and did not distinguish himself, struggling through games and practices with a bad knee.

Treu remains a reliable long snapper whose primary value is as a backup, but he ended up starting 10 times. He can be overpowered by the bigger nose tackles.

Slaughter, an unrestricted free agent, seldom plays except on special teams but played well for a short time in the season finale against the Giants' Michael Strahan.

Hulsey, an unrestricted free agent, never got a good look even though the guards were struggling - indicating he is strictly a fringe player.

Lekkerkerker was put on the 53-man roster from the practice squad but was active only once, seeing no action.

This is the area that the Raiders need the most change. Hulsey, Badger, Simms, and Stone should all be cut. Lekkerkerker should either see some action or get cut. Slaughter, Treu, Gallery, and Grove all need to step up and make an impact. Otherwise they'll get cut. As the Texans have shown throughout their entire four year history, the offensive line can make or break a football team. Right now, the Raiders are broken. It's about time they trim the fat from the team.

DEFENSIVE LINE: Starters - LE Bobby Hamilton, RE Derrick Burgess, DT Warren Sapp, NT Ted Washington. Backups - DE/DT Tommy Kelly, DT Ed Jasper, DT Terdell Sands, DE-LB Tyler Brayton, DT Antaj Hawthorne.

Hamilton missed two games with a knee injury but seems to keep getting better. A bloated $5.3 million cap figure means he likely will have to renegotiate, but he is a solid team player and probably will be back.

Burgess, who led the NFL with 16 sacks, was one of the league's top free agent acquisitions. The one Raider who had a truly exceptional year, Burgess shed a reputation for being injury-prone by playing all 16 games and probably double the amount of snaps he ever got with the Eagles.

Following a wasted first year miscast as an end in a 3-4, Sapp recaptured much of his Tampa Bay form working inside over a guard and had five sacks before suffering a torn rotator cuff and going on injured reserve Nov. 27. Given signing bonus and acceleration figures totaling $6 million, Sapp will be given every opportunity to rehab his shoulder and re-assume his position as a starter.

Washington remains an immovable object in the middle and quietly had a solid season. Kelly, who signed as an undrafted free agent in 2004, shows flashes of being dominant. If he makes another step up in 2006, the Raiders may have something special.

Jasper, an unrestricted free agent, was a solid contributor who toyed with retiring last season. Back trouble may force the issue.

Sands was solid inside after Sapp went down to injury, but he is more along the lines of a nose tackle than a defensive tackle.

Brayton plays some downs at end and although undersized, he is more at home with his hand down.

Hawthorne was elevated from the practice squad late in the year and saw only minimal action the one time he was active. He is not particularly big or strong.

This is a pretty solid group here with the exception of Hawthorne. Other members who may not be here next season, for one reason or another are Jasper, Brayton, and Sands. Of these three, I really only think Jasper will be gone. To much of the team needs signifigant help to deal with fine tuning these players.


LINEBACKERS: Starters - WLB Kirk Morrison, MLB Danny Clark. Backups - MLB Tim Johnson, OLB Grant Irons, OLB Tyler Brayton, OLB Isaiah Ekijuiba, OLB Sam Williams, DE-LB Tyler Brayton, OLB Ryan Riddle.

The Raiders utilized a nickel package as their base alignment in large part because of pass coverage deficiencies at linebacker.

Morrison, a third-round draft pick out of San Diego State, emerged as a solid starter who led the team in tackles and had a promising first year.

Clark is a team leader who shines in tight areas but is in trouble in space.

Johnson, undersized for the position, is primarily a special teams player.

Irons was used mostly in short-yardage situations and is neither a defensive end nor an outside linebacker.

Brayton was lost in pass coverage as a linebacker.

Ekijuiba showed intriguing speed and explosiveness as a special teams player but is very raw and not ready to be a linebacker.

Williams suffered a torn ACL in training camp and went on injured reserve. He may be the best athlete among the linebackers but has yet to prove he can stay healthy.

Riddle is a 'tweener who will need to be spotted correctly. He can play special teams, and his best asset is pass rushing despite being undersized at 6-foot-2, 260 pounds.

Well... Get rid of Brayton, Irons, Johnson, and put Clark watching the tight end. Find some Linebackers who are worth their salt and get 'im here quick. Pull a page from the old school Raiders playbook and draft guys from prison if you have to, but get some people who can make an impact!

Start working on Ekijuiba immediately. Being raw and not ready for linebacker is not an excuse in the NFL. If Ekijuiba can't become a linebacker, that will be the coaches fault.

DEFENSIVE BACKS: Starters - LCB Charles Woodson, RCB Nnamdi Asomugha, NB Renaldo Hill, SS Derrick Gibson, FS Stuart Schweigert. Backups - CB Fabian Washington, CB Stanford Routt, CB Denard Walker, CB/S Chris Carr , Jarrod Cooper, S Calvin Branch, S Reggie Tongue.

The Raiders gambled on making Woodson an exclusive rights franchise free agent last season and lost. He started five games before suffering a broken fibula. He almost certainly will be allowed to test the market in 2006, as tagging him would cost more than $12 million in salary. Woodson remains an injury-prone player who hasn't achieved the stardom expected but can be a solid, all-around defensive player when healthy.

Trade Woodson for somebody who can stay healthy. Even better, trade him for a draft pick and gamble on someone else.

Asomugha made strides in coverage in first full season as a starter, but he too often plays soft as to not get beat deep. Poor at judging a ball in flight, Asomugha does not have an interception in 47 games and 23 starts.

Hill started 14 games as the Raiders used the nickel as their base defense. His body took a beating, but he was one of the defensive bright spots. An unrestricted free agent, Hill wants to return.

Gibson suffered a season-ending shoulder dislocation after five games. His $10.2 million cap amount and unfulfilled promise as a first-round pick in 2001 should mean release in March.

Schweigert, in his first year as a starter at free safety, led the Raiders with two interceptions and made a handful of nice plays, but he also had some conspicuous whiffs on tackles in the open field.

Washington held up well as a full-time corner in Woodson's absence and had a strong rookie season. Washington is a good open-field tackler despite his 5-foot-11, 185-pound frame thanks to his excellent closing speed.

Routt opened the season as a nickel back but looked lost and had his playing time cut until the end of the season. A college sprinter with good size, Routt remains very raw as a cornerback, and his viability remains a toss-up.

Walker was inactive much of the season. His $4.5 million cap figure and declining skills make him a candidate for release.

Carr, a kick returner, was pressed into action in the dime defense and did better than expected, although his size (a generously listed 5-10) is problematic as a safety.

Cooper was pressed into full-time action at safety after the injuries to Woodson and Gibson and had some good moments, although his strength is as a core special teams player who can play safety as a reserve. Cooper, an unrestricted free agent, has stated his desire to return.

Branch, who was in the Raiders' scouting department last season, was brought in as a coach-on-the-field type who can contribute on special teams. He is unlikely to return.

Tongue was signed Nov. 2, and his defensive role was increasing quickly, but he suffered a season-ending knee injury and was placed on injured reserve Nov. 29. He is an unrestricted free agent.

Oh man... where do I start? First the linebackers and now this? All you have to do is pass the ball and the Raiders will lose every game. It's a wonder that they aren't tied with the Texans for last place in the NFL. They got lucky with the few wins that they managed to scrape up. O.k., back to business...

I'd start with scrapping Branch, Walker, Asomugha, Gibson, and Woodson. Tongue and Routt can be an asset with some good coaching. It's too early to tell and, honestly, the Raiders have too much to do already.

SPECIAL TEAMS: K Sebastian Janikowski, P Shane Lechler, S Adam Treu, KR Chris Carr, PR Chris Carr.

Janikowski had his worst year as a pro, going 20-for-30 on field goal attempts with misses directly contributing to losses against Philadelphia and Cleveland. Known for his distance, Janikowski was only 7-for-15 on field-goal attempts of 40 yards and beyond. He had only 11 touchbacks, the second-lowest total of his career. If Janikowski is not released, he likely will face legitimate training camp competition for his job in July.

Lechler was below his Pro Bowl form of 2005 largely because of a three-game slump late in the season, although he rebounded at the end. He finished with a 45.7-yard average but just 37.9 net as he occasionally outkicked the coverage.

Treu remains a reliable long snapper and backup center.

Return specialist Carr was a find as an undrafted free agent. He averaged just 5.5 yards on punt returns with a long of 34, but his fearlessness at fielding the ball made him an upgrade over Phillip Buchanon. Carr averaged 24 yards on 74 kickoff returns with a long of 62, and a few times he appeared one block or one move away from going the distance.

Janikowski was a great kicker, but that is now in the past. Draft a replacement this year and hope for the best. Keep Janikowski on to train the new kicker for a year but then send him out to pasture.

COACHING: Head coach - Vacant. Staff - Jimmy Raye (offensive coordinator), Rob Ryan (defensive coordinator), Joe Avezzano (special teams), Fred Biletnikoff (wide receivers), Skip Peete (running backs), Jim Colletto (offensive line), John Shoop (quarterbacks) Martin Bayless (special teams assistant), Sam Clancy (defensive line), Keith Millard (defensive line assistant), Pat Jones (inside linebackers), Don Martindale (outside linebackers), Clayton Lopez (defensive backs), Willie Brown (squad development).

The new coach will have some input as to new staff, but Al Davis has the final say on coaches. Biletnikoff, Brown and Peete almost assuredly will remain.

Millard drew raves from the defensive linemen and could be in line to become defensive line coach.

Raye was offensive coordinator in name only, as Norv Turner ran the offense and called the plays.

Ryan's defense showed marked improvement from his first year to his second. Colletto could be one and done based on the performance of Oakland's offensive line. Avezzano could fall victim to the poor season by Janikowski.

Davis might as well just promot Raye to head coach. As I have said before, it's just a title to Davis. I think Millard would be better off on a different team. I think he has what it takes to be a defensive coordinator, but he'll be handicapped in the Al Davis system.

Still, this team was once great under the rule of Al Davis and may be so again. We'll see how things play out and keep our fingers crossed.